Nvidia said on 17 August 2026 that it will guarantee up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI's lease and power payments at a data center campus in Pike County, Ohio, along with a commitment to maintain a minimum value for the site should OpenAI default, and separately invested $1.5 billion of equity in the developer, SoftBank's SB Energy.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source The campus is planned to reach 8 gigawatts, with an initial 800 megawatts operating in 2028 under a 20 year OpenAI lease.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source The stake is that the largest constraint on frontier AI is no longer chips or even power, it is who is willing to sign a two decade obligation against a business plan nobody can underwrite. We assess with high confidence that Nvidia's guarantee exists because no ordinary lender would take OpenAI's covenant alone at this size and duration, and with moderate confidence that this structure becomes the template for every gigawatt scale AI campus that follows.
Read the structure, not the number
The $105 billion is not capital Nvidia is spending. It is credit support, split into two obligations: covering a portion of the lease and power payments, and a floor under the site's value if the tenant walks.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source The only cash Nvidia put in is $1.5 billion for a stake in SB Energy, the SoftBank subsidiary that owns, builds and will operate the campus, with Nvidia named exclusive chip supplier.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source Each party is contributing the thing it has: SoftBank contributes the balance sheet and the land, OpenAI contributes the demand, Nvidia contributes creditworthiness and silicon.
The financing plan underneath makes the purpose plain. SB Energy expects to fund construction from IPO proceeds, direct SoftBank equity, project finance loans and possibly public bonds.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source Three of those four sources are rate sensitive instruments sold to institutions with credit mandates, and none of them prices a lease from a company with OpenAI's financial profile without external support. The guarantee is what converts an unrateable tenant into a bankable one. It is the same instrument, at project scale, as the residual value backstop Nvidia extended days earlier to the six firm financing alliance, where it agreed to cover up to 25 percent of any shortfall in the liquidation value of GPUs used as collateral.3 TechCrunch 2026-08-13 Six investment firms willing to commit up to $500 billion; Nvidia guarantees up to 25 percent of any shortfall in GPU collateral liquidation value; Bloomberg counted roughly $750 billion of circular deals in summer 2026; wrong way risk because obligations grow as demand weakens. Open source In both cases Nvidia is selling insurance to make its own customers financeable.
The scale of the physical commitment deserves equal attention. SoftBank and SB Energy have committed to more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion of regional grid investment in partnership with AEP Ohio.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source That is a utility scale program attached to a single tenant. The site itself is roughly 50 miles south of Columbus, and earlier reporting had Nvidia discussing support of up to $250 billion for a facility then described as 10 gigawatts with total project cost potentially above $500 billion once hardware is counted.2 Rio Times 2026-08-11 Nvidia discussing up to $250 billion of financing support for the OpenAI campus about 50 miles south of Columbus, then described as 10 gigawatts developed by SB Energy with total project cost potentially above $500 billion including hardware; part of a wider $500 billion plus financing ecosystem with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR. Open source The final structure came in materially smaller than that discussed figure, which is worth noting: the gap between what was floated in July and what was signed in August is roughly $145 billion of support.2 Rio Times 2026-08-11 Nvidia discussing up to $250 billion of financing support for the OpenAI campus about 50 miles south of Columbus, then described as 10 gigawatts developed by SB Energy with total project cost potentially above $500 billion including hardware; part of a wider $500 billion plus financing ecosystem with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR. Open source 1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source
The 2028 problem
Nothing here produces a token before 2028, and then only 800 megawatts of the eventual 8 gigawatts.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source The obligations, by contrast, start now: grid investment, construction, and a 20 year lease term that runs to roughly 2048. This is the structural feature that distinguishes AI infrastructure from AI software. Model releases move quarterly; the assets that run them are being committed on a horizon three model generations long, and the tenant's ability to pay in year twelve is the single largest unhedged variable in the deal.
Nvidia's own framing tries to answer this. Huang described the arrangement as securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute so that OpenAI can deploy AI factories that upgrade with new chip generations.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source The word doing the work is upgrade: the thesis is that the shell, the power and the interconnect outlive any particular accelerator, so the twenty year lease is on a building and a substation, not on a chip. That is a reasonable position and it is also exactly the position that makes the residual value question elsewhere in Nvidia's book so consequential.3 TechCrunch 2026-08-13 Six investment firms willing to commit up to $500 billion; Nvidia guarantees up to 25 percent of any shortfall in GPU collateral liquidation value; Bloomberg counted roughly $750 billion of circular deals in summer 2026; wrong way risk because obligations grow as demand weakens. Open source
Who gains and who loses
SB Energy gains most cleanly. It converts a speculative development into a guaranteed cash flow stream ahead of a planned IPO, with the world's most valuable chipmaker as both equity holder and credit enhancer.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source OpenAI gains capacity it could not have financed on its own covenant, on terms that push the capital cost onto other balance sheets. AEP Ohio and its contractors gain a $4.2 billion grid program and, per the project's claims, 35,000 construction jobs through 2032 and 2,500 permanent operating roles, alongside an $80 million community investment commitment.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source Those job figures come from the project's own promotion rather than an independent study, and should be read accordingly.
The losers are the parties whose exposure is real but unpriced. Ohio ratepayers and the regional grid absorb a load addition of up to 8 gigawatts whose new generation is promised but not yet built, and the sequencing risk between the two falls on the system, not on the tenant.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source Nvidia's shareholders take on a contingent obligation that is triggered by an OpenAI default, which is the same event that would damage Nvidia's order book, the wrong way exposure TechCrunch identified in the parallel financing program.3 TechCrunch 2026-08-13 Six investment firms willing to commit up to $500 billion; Nvidia guarantees up to 25 percent of any shortfall in GPU collateral liquidation value; Bloomberg counted roughly $750 billion of circular deals in summer 2026; wrong way risk because obligations grow as demand weakens. Open source And every AI developer without a chipmaker willing to guarantee its rent now competes for power and construction capacity against a project that has one.
The counter-case
The strongest argument that this is prudent rather than precarious is that the guarantee may never be more than a formality. If inference demand keeps compounding, OpenAI pays its rent from revenue, the guarantee expires unused, and Nvidia will have bought exclusive supply into 8 gigawatts of demand for the cost of a $1.5 billion equity stake and a signature. Site level guarantees are also standard practice in project finance for creditworthy sponsors; what is unusual here is the identity of the guarantor, not the instrument.
For the cautious reading to be right, OpenAI's revenue would have to fall short of its lease and power obligations at a scale where the guarantee is actually called, which would require a demand reversal severe enough to be visible years earlier in Nvidia's own results. It is also worth stating the evidentiary limits plainly: the specific terms, including whether the $105 billion is a cap on aggregate exposure or on annual coverage, come from wire reporting rather than a filing we have read, and one source describes 4.25 gigawatts as the guaranteed first phase while the same account gives 800 megawatts as the 2028 opening capacity.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source Those are compatible (a phase and its first tranche) but they are not identical claims, and the distinction matters for anyone sizing the obligation.
What to watch
- The SB Energy IPO prices, or does not. The funding plan leans on public equity proceeds.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source A completed listing in the next four quarters validates the structure; a withdrawal signals public markets discount the guaranteed cash flows more than private lenders do.
- The guarantee lands in an Nvidia filing. Watch the next annual report for a quantified contingent liability naming the Ohio commitment. Its absence, or a materially smaller figure than $105 billion, would mean the announced number describes a ceiling almost nobody expects to approach.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source
- Generation keeps pace with load. The commitment is more than 10 gigawatts of new generation against up to 8 gigawatts of campus demand.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source If interconnection filings and construction starts through 2027 do not track that, the 2028 opening slips or the load lands on existing supply, which becomes a ratepayer question.
- 800 megawatts energizes on schedule. First power in 2028 is the falsifiable test of the whole plan.1 Global Banking and Finance 2026-08-17 Guarantee of up to $105 billion covering part of OpenAI lease and power payments plus minimum site value on default; $1.5 billion Nvidia equity in SB Energy; Pike County campus up to 8 gigawatts, initial 800 megawatts in 2028, 20 year lease, 4.25 gigawatt first phase; SB Energy as developer and Nvidia as exclusive chip supplier; funding from IPO proceeds, SoftBank equity, project loans and possible bonds; more than 10 gigawatts of new generation and $4.2 billion AEP Ohio grid investment; 35,000 construction jobs through 2032, 2,500 permanent roles, $80 million community investment; Huang on securing long lived infrastructure for Nvidia compute. Open source Slippage into 2029 would tell you the binding constraint was never money.
- A second campus copies the terms. If the next gigawatt scale AI site announced in the next twelve months carries a vendor guarantee on the tenant's lease, this stopped being a bespoke deal and became the market structure.3 TechCrunch 2026-08-13 Six investment firms willing to commit up to $500 billion; Nvidia guarantees up to 25 percent of any shortfall in GPU collateral liquidation value; Bloomberg counted roughly $750 billion of circular deals in summer 2026; wrong way risk because obligations grow as demand weakens. Open source
The AI buildout has quietly acquired a lender of last resort, and it is the company selling the chips. That works for as long as the seller's balance sheet is stronger than the sector's doubts, which is a condition, not a law.