The Bureau of Industry and Security issued a final rule effective January 15, 2026 that shifted license review for exports of NVIDIA H200- and AMD MI325X-equivalent chips to China and Macau from a presumption of denial to case-by-case review.1 Mayer Brown 2026-01-16 The BIS final rule effective January 15, 2026 shifted license review for NVIDIA H200- and AMD MI325X-equivalent chips to China and Macau from presumption of denial to case-by-case review, requiring a certification that aggregate TPP exported stays below 50% of US shipments, third-party testing, and documented domestic availability. Open source Eligibility is capped by hardware: only devices with total processing performance below 21,000 and total DRAM bandwidth under 6,500 gigabytes per second qualify, which keeps next-generation Blackwell-class parts on the denial list.2 Covington & Burling 2026-01-16 Eligible chips must have total processing performance below 21,000 and DRAM bandwidth under 6,500 GB/s; reexports from abroad and in-country transfers remain under presumption of denial; expanded KYC covers end users in listed jurisdictions, and China reportedly discouraged H200 imports outside research exceptions. Open source The stake: this is the formal codification of a real loosening of China chip policy, but the conditions attached, a volume cap, mandatory testing, and expanded customer vetting, are engineered to let commerce resume without ceding control. We assess with moderate confidence that the rule's practical effect will be far smaller than the headline reversal suggests, because the conditions plus Beijing's own resistance blunt it from both ends.

What the rule actually changed

The change is a shift in default, not an open door. Under the prior regime, a license application to ship these chips to China was presumed to be denied; under the new rule it is reviewed on its merits.1 Mayer Brown 2026-01-16 The BIS final rule effective January 15, 2026 shifted license review for NVIDIA H200- and AMD MI325X-equivalent chips to China and Macau from presumption of denial to case-by-case review, requiring a certification that aggregate TPP exported stays below 50% of US shipments, third-party testing, and documented domestic availability. Open source To qualify for that review, an exporter must certify several things: that the products are commercially available in the US with a documented domestic shipment history, that US customer orders will not be delayed, and, centrally, that the aggregate processing performance exported to China and Macau stays below 50 percent of what the same chips ship to US customers.1 Mayer Brown 2026-01-16 The BIS final rule effective January 15, 2026 shifted license review for NVIDIA H200- and AMD MI325X-equivalent chips to China and Macau from presumption of denial to case-by-case review, requiring a certification that aggregate TPP exported stays below 50% of US shipments, third-party testing, and documented domestic availability. Open source Independent US-based third-party testing is required before export to verify the chips meet the stated specifications, and Know Your Customer procedures are expanded to identify ultimate end users in a list of jurisdictions including China, Macau, Russia, and Iran.2 Covington & Burling 2026-01-16 Eligible chips must have total processing performance below 21,000 and DRAM bandwidth under 6,500 GB/s; reexports from abroad and in-country transfers remain under presumption of denial; expanded KYC covers end users in listed jurisdictions, and China reportedly discouraged H200 imports outside research exceptions. Open source

The limits are as important as the opening. Reexports of the same chips from third countries, and transfers within China or Macau, remain under a presumption of denial.2 Covington & Burling 2026-01-16 Eligible chips must have total processing performance below 21,000 and DRAM bandwidth under 6,500 GB/s; reexports from abroad and in-country transfers remain under presumption of denial; expanded KYC covers end users in listed jurisdictions, and China reportedly discouraged H200 imports outside research exceptions. Open source We assess with high confidence that this structure is deliberate: it permits a metered flow of H200-class hardware directly from US exporters while closing the indirect routes that made prior controls leaky. The KYC expansion reinforces the same intent, requiring exporters to identify ultimate consignees and end users across a bloc of listed jurisdictions rather than accepting a nominal buyer, which is designed to stop the transshipment patterns that undercut earlier controls.2 Covington & Burling 2026-01-16 Eligible chips must have total processing performance below 21,000 and DRAM bandwidth under 6,500 GB/s; reexports from abroad and in-country transfers remain under presumption of denial; expanded KYC covers end users in listed jurisdictions, and China reportedly discouraged H200 imports outside research exceptions. Open source

It is worth naming what the hardware ceiling does. By capping eligibility at total processing performance below 21,000 and DRAM bandwidth under 6,500 gigabytes per second, the rule draws a bright line one tier below the frontier: H200-class parts can flow under review, while Blackwell-generation accelerators stay under presumption of denial.2 Covington & Burling 2026-01-16 Eligible chips must have total processing performance below 21,000 and DRAM bandwidth under 6,500 GB/s; reexports from abroad and in-country transfers remain under presumption of denial; expanded KYC covers end users in listed jurisdictions, and China reportedly discouraged H200 imports outside research exceptions. Open source We assess with high confidence that this is the load-bearing choice in the whole design, because it lets policymakers claim a commercial opening while keeping the highest-performance training hardware, the part that most matters for closing a capability gap, firmly out of reach.

Second order effects and the ledger

Who gains. NVIDIA and AMD gain a legal path back to a large market that was effectively closed, and the 50 percent cap tied to US shipments gives them a formula they can plan against rather than a flat ban.1 Mayer Brown 2026-01-16 The BIS final rule effective January 15, 2026 shifted license review for NVIDIA H200- and AMD MI325X-equivalent chips to China and Macau from presumption of denial to case-by-case review, requiring a certification that aggregate TPP exported stays below 50% of US shipments, third-party testing, and documented domestic availability. Open source Chinese buyers who can clear the KYC and testing hurdles gain access to hardware a tier below the frontier. US-based third-party testing labs gain a mandated role in the export chain.2 Covington & Burling 2026-01-16 Eligible chips must have total processing performance below 21,000 and DRAM bandwidth under 6,500 GB/s; reexports from abroad and in-country transfers remain under presumption of denial; expanded KYC covers end users in listed jurisdictions, and China reportedly discouraged H200 imports outside research exceptions. Open source

Who loses, or is constrained. The 50 percent cap structurally ties any China sales to US demand, so a chipmaker cannot pivot to China if domestic orders soften; the policy keeps the US market first by construction.1 Mayer Brown 2026-01-16 The BIS final rule effective January 15, 2026 shifted license review for NVIDIA H200- and AMD MI325X-equivalent chips to China and Macau from presumption of denial to case-by-case review, requiring a certification that aggregate TPP exported stays below 50% of US shipments, third-party testing, and documented domestic availability. Open source Chinese firms hoping to route chips through third countries lose that option under the retained denial on reexports.2 Covington & Burling 2026-01-16 Eligible chips must have total processing performance below 21,000 and DRAM bandwidth under 6,500 GB/s; reexports from abroad and in-country transfers remain under presumption of denial; expanded KYC covers end users in listed jurisdictions, and China reportedly discouraged H200 imports outside research exceptions. Open source The most consequential constraint comes from Beijing itself: China reportedly discouraged H200 imports outside academic and research exceptions, which would sharply limit the rule's commercial impact regardless of what Washington permits.2 Covington & Burling 2026-01-16 Eligible chips must have total processing performance below 21,000 and DRAM bandwidth under 6,500 GB/s; reexports from abroad and in-country transfers remain under presumption of denial; expanded KYC covers end users in listed jurisdictions, and China reportedly discouraged H200 imports outside research exceptions. Open source We assess with moderate confidence that Chinese policy, not US licensing, will be the binding constraint on actual H200 volumes into China in 2026.

The counter-case

The strongest argument that this rule matters more than its conditions suggest is that a presumption shift is a large signal to a market that reads direction, not just detail. Even a metered legal channel resets procurement expectations and lets Chinese datacenters plan around availability that did not exist before.1 Mayer Brown 2026-01-16 The BIS final rule effective January 15, 2026 shifted license review for NVIDIA H200- and AMD MI325X-equivalent chips to China and Macau from presumption of denial to case-by-case review, requiring a certification that aggregate TPP exported stays below 50% of US shipments, third-party testing, and documented domestic availability. Open source If the certification and testing requirements prove routine rather than prohibitive, volume could scale faster than a skeptical read assumes. The counter to the counter is Beijing's posture: a Chinese preference to steer buyers toward domestic accelerators would make the US loosening close to moot in practice, and that guidance is reported rather than formally confirmed, so its durability is uncertain.2 Covington & Burling 2026-01-16 Eligible chips must have total processing performance below 21,000 and DRAM bandwidth under 6,500 GB/s; reexports from abroad and in-country transfers remain under presumption of denial; expanded KYC covers end users in listed jurisdictions, and China reportedly discouraged H200 imports outside research exceptions. Open source For the low-impact thesis to fail, either the conditions turn out to be easy to satisfy at scale or Beijing reverses its discouragement, and neither is settled.

What to watch

  • Licenses actually issue under case-by-case review. If BIS grants a visible number of H200-class licenses to China through 2026, the loosening is operative; a review process that approves almost nothing would show the presumption shift was cosmetic.1 Mayer Brown 2026-01-16 The BIS final rule effective January 15, 2026 shifted license review for NVIDIA H200- and AMD MI325X-equivalent chips to China and Macau from presumption of denial to case-by-case review, requiring a certification that aggregate TPP exported stays below 50% of US shipments, third-party testing, and documented domestic availability. Open source
  • The 50 percent cap binds in practice. Watch whether China-bound processing performance runs into the cap relative to US shipments, the clearest evidence the formula is shaping volumes rather than sitting unused.1 Mayer Brown 2026-01-16 The BIS final rule effective January 15, 2026 shifted license review for NVIDIA H200- and AMD MI325X-equivalent chips to China and Macau from presumption of denial to case-by-case review, requiring a certification that aggregate TPP exported stays below 50% of US shipments, third-party testing, and documented domestic availability. Open source
  • Beijing's discouragement holds or lifts. If China formalizes or maintains guidance steering buyers away from H200 imports, US policy is moot at the margin; a reversal would let volumes rise toward the cap.2 Covington & Burling 2026-01-16 Eligible chips must have total processing performance below 21,000 and DRAM bandwidth under 6,500 GB/s; reexports from abroad and in-country transfers remain under presumption of denial; expanded KYC covers end users in listed jurisdictions, and China reportedly discouraged H200 imports outside research exceptions. Open source
  • The rule survives the next policy swing. Given how often China chip policy has flipped, watch whether this case-by-case regime is still standing in twelve months or is superseded, which will tell exporters whether they can plan against it at all.2 Covington & Burling 2026-01-16 Eligible chips must have total processing performance below 21,000 and DRAM bandwidth under 6,500 GB/s; reexports from abroad and in-country transfers remain under presumption of denial; expanded KYC covers end users in listed jurisdictions, and China reportedly discouraged H200 imports outside research exceptions. Open source